COVID-19 by the Numbers in Texas
Hibbs Institute for Business & Economic Research • May 11, 2020
As the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic continues to evolve, nearly 3.5 million people worldwide have been infected and nearly 240,000 have died. This special issue of the Hibbs Brief discusses the trends and recent numbers on the COVID-19 outbreak in Smith County, East Texas and the overall state. The Hibbs Institute finds that Tyler Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has proportionally lower rates of confirmed cases and deaths compared to other highlighted areas of Texas.
The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in East Texas occurred on March 10 in Gregg County. On March 13, three cases were confirmed in Smith County. A county typically shows a low number of confirmed cases until it reaches the community spread contagion. Then, the number of cases can increase exponentially in a short period of time if strong measures, such as social distancing, are not put into place.
Since counties in Texas vary widely in population size, density and their interaction with other locations the development
of COVID-19 has impacted each county differently. By April 30, the spread of COVID-19 in Texas reached 28,087 cases;4 less than two months since the first confirmed case was announced in Fort Bend County in Houston. See Figure 1.
Since Texas is a large state with 254 counties, it may be difficult to detect whether the peak of the COVID–19 pandemic
has been reached and when the spread of the virus will come to an end. The pandemic showed different magnitudes and timelines in the Texas counties during these past two months. On April 10, the Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS) reported the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases with 1,441; the second largest was on April 9, with 1,093; and the third largest was on April 30, with 1,033. The contagion curve showing new COVID–19 cases does not seem to flattening yet in Texas (Figure 2)
According to data collected, Smith County has successfully contained the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, as it can be observed in Figure 3 (red line). Figures 3 and 4 show the development of the pandemic spread in Smith County and East Texas. While Figure 3 illustrates the pandemic’s growth as the total confirmed cases by day over a six-week period, Figure 4 gives a general perspective of the stage of the outbreak via new COVID-19 cases by day. Smith County saw a peak of new COVID-19 cases on April 7 with 18 new confirmed cases, then the spread slowed down over the following weeks. In contrast, the spread of COVID-19 is still growing in several counties of East Texas. East Texas saw a peak of new confirmed cases on April 30 with 66 new cases (Figure 4).
Figures 5 and 6 are complementary to show the COVID-19 progress over time during the past six or seven weeks in the
Dallas MSA, Houston MSA, Austin MSA and San Antonio MSA. The Houston MSA has the largest number of confirmed
COVID-19 cases in Texas with nearly 9,000 cases by April 30 and an average of 210 new additional cases per day during the previous 10 days. Next on the list is the Dallas MSA with nearly 7,500 confirmed cases and an average of 230 new additional cases per day in the same timeframe (Figure 6). Similarly, the Austin and San Antonio MSAs rank third and fourth largest, respectively, with 2,131 and 1,558 confirmed cases of COVID-19 by April 30. Austin and San Antonio MSAs saw an average of 66 and 37 new additional cases, respectively, during the previous 10 days.
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